Long Way To Go For Lightning

nordiques100 writes "It has become clear to almost everyone that the Tampa Bay Lightning were a fluke and were lucky to win the Stanley Cup in 2004.
The franchise has become a laughingstock finishing last then second last in the past two years and it does not look like the team will advance any further up.
They do have a top heavy roster of stars, but the bickering ownership fiasco may prove to be a distraction, the team lacks scoring depth and has much to improve defensively.
But there are young studs in Steve Stamkos and Victor Hedman to build around and with them comes hope.

Coaching:
Rick Tocchet as a player was a respected warrior and a hard nosed forward who gave it his all. Thats the kind of attitude he is trying to instill with the Lightning.
But in terms of strategy, the X's and O's, Tocchett needs to make major improvements. The Lightning only cracked the top 20 (they were 19th) on the PP as they were in the bottom 5 in both the PK and team defence. They were 6th worst offensively. When you can't score and cant defend, its not a surprise to finish 2nd last overall.
The addition of Rick Wilson to the staff should at least improve the game plan on the defensive side. He will also add some experience behind the bench as well.

Lineup:
C: Lecavalier, Stamkos, Halpern, Hall, Szezechura
RW: St Louis, Miller, Downie, Karsums
LW: Malone, Veilleux, Craig, Fedoruk
D: Krajicek, Meszaros, Ranger, Smaby, Walker, Ohlund, Foster, Hale
G: Smith, Nittymaki

Forwards

The Bolts have some strong front line talent in Lecavalier, St Louis and Stamkos. But they lack depth. Stamkos had a very good 2nd half of the season and put up quite a few points and the team is hoping he continues to progress.

He often played with St Louis and Malone and their instant chemistry should give them a solid top offensive unit. St Louis is a dangerous player with his speed and skill and he has a big heart and brings good leadership to a young team. Malone provides a big body presence and a physical element to the top line.

That would leave Lecavalier to anchor the 2nd line. The problem is, there is absolutely no depth on the wings, especially after getting rid of Prospal in a cost cutting move. They will likely audition some young players like Karsums, Miller and Smolenek to see if they can contribute.

This could work provided Lecavalier steps up. He had an injury plagued season and needs to show he can be counted on to carry the team on a regular basis as his strong efforts seem few and far between. If he can get back to being a big 40 goal man that will go a long way to improving the offence.

There are lots of checkers and role forwards led by Halpern and Veilleux. And they are hoping players like Downie, Fedoruk and Craig can make them a harder team to play against. But the 3rd and 4th lines offer zero offence. Last season only 5 players on the roster (all forwards) had more than 20 points.

Defence

The blueline is vastly improved with the additions of Ohlund, Hedman and Walker. The defence last season was injury plagued, inconsistent and lacked chemistry with so many different players lining up each game.

They were not able to get cohesive units out there and figure out what roles these units would play.

Hedman should get a chance to help them at least on the offensive side. He can make good first passes and add some badly needed skill. Meszaros is a skilled blueliner but found out how difficult life is not surrounded by other skilled players like he was in Ottawa.

The team hopes Ranger stays healthy and with the addition of Ohlund and Walker, they have some players who can play responsible defensively. The key will be Ohlund as his experience and smarts will go a long way to leading improvements to the team at both ends.

Goal

Another important step towards defensive improvements will be for Smith to stay healthy. He played quite well considering the team in front of him was so terrible.

But then he got hurt and the wheels fell off completely as they couldnt find a consistent backup to shoulder the load. They hope to have that with Nittymaki.

Smith though needs to play lots and still needs to prove he can be a number 1 and handle the workload. He has great tools with good size, a solid puck handler and quickness, but just lacks experience. If he stays healthy, he could have a great impact.
Special Teams
The Lightning have plenty of skill to put on the PP but didnt have a good point man. They hope Ohlund and Hedman can rectify that. They have plenty of front end talent to put out there but they were stifled when the opponents could collapse near the net and leave the weak points open. With a presence back there, teams will have to think twice.

The PK was horrible. A healthy Smith and the additions on D will help immensely and the infusion of talent is hopefully the tonic that fixes this. Another key will be to take less penalties. They took the 4th most minors in the league and gave up a crazy 405 PPs to the oppnents. A significant drop in this is an absolute must.

Depth
F: Tukonen, Bochenski, Jones, Konopka, Lawrence, Simek,
D: Jackson, Fletcher, Lundin,
G: Lundin, RamoWhat's Left
Payroll: 43.25 mil 7.8
UFA: Malik, Niskala, Pettinger, Keller, McKenna
RFA: Lashoff, Lundin, Smaby, Smolenak, Karsums

The biggest need for the team would be to stabilize the ownership situation. GM Brian Lawton is trying to do things business as usual but its a difficult task with the fracture up at the top and money may or may not being available.

The chequebook opened to sign Ohlund but they cut Prospal to save a few. They will need to spend if they want to address their lack of offensive depth. Do not be surprised if a defenceman, maybe even Meszaros gets moved for further cost cutting.

Draft Picks
R1/2 V. Hedman (D)
R1/29 C. Ashton (RW)
R2/52 R. Panik (RW)
R4/93 A. Hutchings (LW)
R5/148 M. Zador (G)
R6/162 J. Janus (G)
R7/183 K. Gotovets (D)

The Bolts were in win-win getting Hedman or ending up with Tavares if the big Swede went first overall. They now have an elite defence prospect whom they can build their backend around. The Swedish Chris Pronger as some have said, Hedman does not have the menacing phsyical game Pronger brings. But at 6'6 with high end skills and great mobility he will be a treat to watch for fans who really appreciate strong two way hockey.

The team traded up to land Carter Ashton who carries some good bloodlines with his father Brent a long time NHLer in the 80s. The younger Ashton is a budding power forward and has good size with a decent skill set. A sleeper pick may be Panik who was highly touted before last year but fell off the radar considerably. He is pure skill on skate except he needs to grasp the team game and gain some work ethic.

Top Prospects:
F: Dana Tyrell, Mitch Fadden, Luca *****i, Steve Downie, Radek Smolenek, Martin Karsums
D: Ty Wishart, Vladimir Mihalik, Kevin Quick, Matt Lashoff,
G: Riku Helenius, Dustin Tokarski

Smolenek, Karsums and maybe even Tyrell will have a chance at a top 6 forward role. They bring some skill with Tyrell carrying the most promise. The most likely scenario for Tyrell would be to give him more seasoning. After missing the entire 2nd half of the season, getting some games under his belt, and acclimating him to the pro game which has bigger players to contend with makes the most sense.

They have a few former 1st round picks like Michaik, Lashoff and Wishart who may challenge for a job, especially if a veteran player is moved. Lashoff is more of a skilled offensive blueliner while Mihalik, at 6'7, and Wishart are defensive defenceman.

The team hopes that Helenius will get a regular work load in the AHL this year now that Kari Ramo left for Europe. Helenius has been bounced around, playing for 5 different teams in his first pro campaign and they would prefer he has an everyday job in 1 place. And he only got into 37 contests with those 5 teams and struggled. If he is the starter from day one, perhaps he can find some consistency and perhaps earn him a longer look with the Bolts.

Outlook: Tampa does not have enough scoring depth and has lots to prove defensively before they can be considered a playoff team. The front end talent is exciting as is having a front line forward and blueliner to build the team around for the next 5-10 years. This may be yet another rebuilding year that could once again spearhead trade talks involving their veteran stars like Lecavalier and St Louis and likely mean more talk of the battle between owners. After 2 finishes about at the bottom, it can only get better.
Prediction: 5th in Southeast, 14th in East"