Drafting Success

bbruins37 writes "After the Kessel trade there's been alot of talk about how valuable picks really are. A while ago I did a data project that tried rank the NHL franchises. There were plenty of criterion, and one was drafting success.

Before I get reemed out for this let me explain that I realize there was plenty of bias that i couldn't get rid of and there were parts that had to be subjective.

So, this is basically how i did it:

Because it is extremely inconvenient to deduce every drafted player’s output who was ever drafted since 1963, it is justifiable to simplify to judge only those drafted players who have made either the first or second all-star teams. That is the first bias, but it is next to impossible to do any more than this so this must be deemed unavoidable.
Weight factors will be allotted to players who make these all-star teams, with 1.5 to those who make the first all-star teams and 1 to those who make the second. These are arbitrary weight factors so this causes unavoidable bias.

The next part of the formula involves each individual player’s draft position out of how many players there were in his draft. This helps deduce how good a team’s draft choice is, because the later the choice, the better it is. The player’s position would be divided by the total number of players in the draft. There is one case of bias in this because during the first few years of the draft, not many players were selected, so the total score would be inflated. However, this part of the formula would look like:

(Number of First- All Star Teams Made)((1.5(The Number the Player was Selected Overall / The Total Number of Players in the Draft))+((The Number of Second All-Star Teams Made) (1 ((The Number the Player was Selected Overall / The Total Number of Players in the Draft)))

Also one has to consider that making the all-star team becomes more difficult as time progresses because more and more teams are added to the league. Therefore, one has to obtain the average number of teams in the league from 1963-64 (the first season after the first draft) onwards, or the average teams in the league for the number of years that a team has been around for and multiply it by the total number of points. So, after adding up all of the points from every play for a team the formula would be:

(Total Number of Points Ac*****ulated)(Average Number of teams in the league in Drafting Years)

One unavoidable bias that occurs in this criterion is that newer teams do not have the time for their players to reach their prime to make these all-star teams. However, in order to consider these teams, this has to be disregarded.

Also, the New York Americans, Montreal Maroons, and Pittsburgh Pirates participated in no drafts. Because of this, they will be awarded the mean score of all of the other teams. While this may not have been true had they participated in drafts, it is the only thing one can do to include them.

After all of the points were added up, the franchise with the most points would receive 100% and every other franchise would be a percentage of the 1st place franchise.

Here are the results:

Los Angeles Kings- 6.805= 100%
Key Contributions - Luc Robitaille, Kevin Stevens, and Rob Blake.

Anaheim Mighty Ducks- .198/6.805= 2.91%

Atlanta Flames= .656/6.805= 9.64 %
Brett Hull and Hakan Loob

Atlanta Thrashers= .089/6.805= 1.308%
Boston Bruins- 3.485/6.805= 51.212%
Ken Dryden and Raymond Bourque

Buffalo Sabres- 1.434/6.805= 21.073%
Alexander Mogilny

Chicago Blackhawks- 3.506/6.805= 51.521%
Dominik Hasek

Columbus Blue Jackets- 0/6.805= 0%

Detroit Red Wings- 2.727/6.805= 40.073%
Niklas Lidstrom

Edmonton Oilers- 3.589/6.805= 52.745%Jari Kurri, Mark Messier

Florida Panthers- 0/6.805= 0%

Hartford Whalers/Carolina Hurricanes- .025/6.805= 0.367%
Kansas City Scouts/Colorado Rockies/New Jersey Devils- .995/6.805= 14.623%
Martin Brodeur

Minnesota North Stars/Dallas Stars- .571/6,805= 8.391%
Roman Turek, Marty Turco

Minnesota Wild- 0/6.805= 0%

Montreal Canadiens- 3.403/6.802= 50.007%
Larry Robinson, Patrick Roy, Chris Chelios

Montreal Maroons- X= 19.935%

Nashville Predators- 0/6.805= 0%

New York Americans/Brooklyn Americans- X= 19.935%

New York Islanders- 2.07/6.805= 30.419%
Mike Bossy, Zdeno Chara

New York Rangers- 1.107/6.805= 16.267%
John Vanbiesbrouck

Oakland Seals/California Golden Seals/Cleveland Barons- .657/6.805= 9.655%

Ottawa Senators- 25.863%
Daniel Alfredsson

Philadelphia Flyers- 2.239/6.805= 32.902%
Bobby Clarke, Pete Peeters

Pittsburgh Penguins- .461/6.805= 6.774%Markus Naslund

Pittsburgh Pirates/Philadelphia Quakers- X= 19.935%

Quebec Nordiques- 1.436/6.805= 21.102%
Michel Goulet

St. Louis Blues- .944/6.805= 13.872%
Mike Liut, Bob Froese

San Jose Sharks- 1.571/6.805= 23.086%
Miikka Kipprusoff

Tampa Bay Lightning- .008/6.805= 0.118%

Toronto Maple Leafs- .226/6.805= 3.321%
Randy Carlyle

Vancouver Canucks- 1.047/6.805= 15.386%
Pavel Bure, Cam Neely

Washington Capitals- .45/6.805= 6.613%
Jim Carey

Winnipeg Jets/Phoenix Coyotes- .594/6.805= 8.729%
Alexei Zhamnov

Looking back I dont know why I based it on where the player was drafted relative to how many players were in the draft, but the alternative would have been to do some crazy inverse formula, which would have taken way too much work.

Also, I think this was done in the middle of the 2008 playoffs so members of the all-star teams the last couple of years werent included. the main omissions would be datsyuk, zetterberg, and lidstrom for detroit."